How to decide is there a deity (Introduction)

by David Turell @, Tuesday, January 06, 2009, 14:18 (5777 days ago)

I was invited to join this group last March, if I remember properly. I've had lots of fun adding to the debate. The reason I'm here, I guess, is the organizers found I had written a book, rather autobiographical, describing how I came to my conclusion that there must be a greater power. To start the New Year I'd like give the guidelines I followed in deciding to leave agnosticism (to some degree), and conclude "beyond a reasonable doubt" (there is no absolute proof) that there is a greater power. - It is a three-legged stool to study: - 1)religious theology; does any one religion have the 'truth'. The fact that 2/3rds of humanity is not monotheistic is enough to answer 'no'. The Bible is manmade, and full of fun stories. Noah is one of the best. How did he know about kangaroos and get 5 million species on that little boat? - 2) Cosmology: what has been found is the universe is meticulously designed for life; 20 major parameters and 100 minor ones. the Earth is extremely special as a planet, with just the right amount of an iron/nickel core. The Standard Model tell us the universe is 13.7 billion years old, the Earth 4.5 billion. - 3) Darwin: the theory is 150 years old, based on a minimum of science compared to what we know now. A very clever idea, for the time, but it takes an intellectual shoehorn to fit everything we know now into the proposition. And that shoehorn are the Just-So stories the Darwinists invent. Evolution occurred, the issue is the method by which it went from simple to complex, chance or coded programming, and a complex code in unfolding as we watch. To my mind chance loses. - 4) The fourth part of a stool is the seat, on which to sit and read. I'm at well over 110 books and counting. Sit there and think. Get rid of all preconceived junk from what was concluded earlier and keep your mind open. Realize that no one knows the ultimate truth. Do not personalize the greater power. That is anthropomorphism, a terrible error. Then reach conclusions.

How to decide is there a deity

by dhw, Wednesday, January 07, 2009, 10:26 (5777 days ago) @ David Turell

David has summarized his reasons for "deciding to leave agnosticism (to some degree)". - I think it must have been Clare who contacted you. She did a great job! Your contributions have been and continue to be hugely informative, and are always given with great patience and tolerance. For anyone who hasn't read your book, Science vs. Religion, I can only say that I found it vastly more informative and coherent than Dawkins' The God Delusion. As I'm still an agnostic, however, there are clearly many unresolved problems for me, and I will try to respond to your summary. - 1) Religious theology: Like most things human, religion has its good side and its bad side. Fundamentalism and indeed intolerance of any sort appals me, and religion has a lot to answer for. But some of the kindest and gentlest people I know are devout believers. As regards the theology, I would suggest that if there is/was a designer, all the religions function in their own way as metaphors ... they are an attempt to grasp something which by its very nature is ungraspable for finite creatures like ourselves. But of course the vastness of an endless, mindless universe is equally ungraspable, and then the metaphor would be an attempt to make sense of non-sense. - 2) Cosmology: you say "the universe is meticulously designed for life". It seems that way. But there is a fine line between detecting patterns and imposing them (see below on the subject of a creator). The big bang may have been a beginning but ... following on from BBella's argument ... if it did happen, it may still have been "a" beginning and not "the" beginning. In 7 billion years' time (a blip in eternity), when scientists predict the end of our own galaxy, something else will take its place. And given a possible infinity of beginnings in a possible eternity of time, who knows what might eventually emerge? This is an atheist argument, and it's no more and no less believable than the suggestion that this infinite and ever changing mass of materials has an intelligent mind of its own. - 3) Darwin: you say, "Evolution occurred, the issue is the method by which it went from simple to complex, chance or coded programming..." I agree, and it's a crucial point in the argument against atheism. I would also ask how simple is the simple, if it could not only replicate itself, but also contained the potential for all these later complexities. It is indeed difficult to believe that chance could have such creative powers. And yet, given infinity and eternity... - 4) "Realize that no one knows the ultimate truth. Do not personalize the greater power. That is anthropomorphism, a terrible error." The decision concerning design v. chance is only a first stage for me. If we lose our identity when we die, it won't matter one way or the other whether we were designed or not. It would simply be a matter of intellectual curiosity in the here and now. But if we retain our identity (a possibility if we follow the OBE, NDE, paranormal line of thinking), then the nature of a possible designer becomes important. Anthropomorphism = the creation imposing patterns on the creator, but you can look at it the other way... namely, that the creation reflects the creator. This is why the discussions with Mark have been so interesting for me: if we assume deliberate design, it's not unreasonable to assume that there was some kind of purpose, and that what was designed reflects something of the designer. I don't see that as an error ... it seems logical to me. "Then reach conclusions." It may be possible. But I'm still more inclined at the moment to follow your preceding advice: "Sit there and think. Get rid of all preconceived junk from what was concluded earlier and keep your mind open." That was the point I'd reached when I opened up this website. Thanks to you, George, Mark, BBella and many others who have contributed throughout this first year, I'm glad I did. You're right, it's fun, but it's also enlightening and helpful. Sitting and thinking can be a lonely business, but discussing and exchanging ideas is good for the soul or the cerebrum or the electrical impulses or the quanta....

How to decide is there a deity

by David Turell @, Wednesday, January 07, 2009, 13:51 (5776 days ago) @ dhw

I been doing a litle introspection. Why did I decide to accept a conclusion? I could still be mulling like dhw. My best guess is my medical training. A medical problem for an internist (me) can be a life-or-death issue. Most aren't, certainly, and the body heals itself 90% of the time with a little coaxing, or not. I'm not trying to be melodramatic. The issue is looking at the facts you have, making a differential diagnosis (listing best choice to worst choice)and hopefully, with your first choice, solving the problem. And that is what I did before writing the book, but I haven't quit thinking; I'm still reading. Perhaps I'm wrong. I have a good mind, but I don't know that it is the best in the world. - I've implied that I wanted to make a choice, based on the best evidence, and that is what I have done. Perhaps I needed to, but I can tell you my decision feels good, just like you know when you are in love. And the 'love' arena' just like the religion 'area' can be two pretty messy places. My decision feels 'right'. For some folks making no decision may feel right. To each his own. - Postscript: It was Clare. I remember her email. Thank her for me.

How to decide is there a deity

by George Jelliss ⌂ @, Crewe, Wednesday, January 07, 2009, 14:46 (5776 days ago) @ David Turell

As to joining this group: I saw it mentioned on the British Humanist e-bulletin and got the impression that it was a "creationist" site, and joined with the intent of countering creationist claims. I still think DHW and DT are at heart creationists of a kind. DHW can't abide "chance" and DT is far too open to the pseudoscience put about by the Discovery Institute and its penumbra. - DT and concludes "beyond a reasonable doubt" (there is no absolute proof) that there is a greater power. I conclude similarly that there isn't. 
 
I agree with DT's comments on 1)religious theology. - I totally disagree with his point 2) Cosmology: He says; "what has been found is the universe is meticulously designed for life". I've been reading Paul Davies' book "The Goldilocks Enigma" (Penguin Books 2006) and this is what he claims. On the same evidence however I maintain that life is just an accident. Most of the universe is hostile to life. The Earth is indeed "extremely special", but by accident not design. (If I can find the time I will try to put together a complete critique of Davies' book, either here or on another site.) - DT in his point 3), on Darwin, accepts evolution but like DHW has an aversion to chance. He thinks God somehow programmed the molecules. I find chance perfectly adequate. - I agree of course with his point 4) about reading and thinking. But there is such a thing as having a mind that is too open, to the influence of charlatans and anecdotalists and dreamers and propagandists and the simply deluded.

How to decide is there a deity

by David Turell @, Wednesday, January 07, 2009, 18:52 (5776 days ago) @ George Jelliss

I totally disagree with his point 2) Cosmology: He says; "what has been found is the universe is meticulously designed for life". I've been reading Paul Davies' book "The Goldilocks Enigma" (Penguin Books 2006) and this is what he claims. On the same evidence however I maintain that life is just an accident. Most of the universe is hostile to life. The Earth is indeed "extremely special", but by accident not design. (If I can find the time I will try to put together a complete critique of Davies' book, either here or on another site.) - I've not read Davies' book yet. It's on my list but I know the information he is covering. What fascinates about Davies is his gradual shift from non-committal theoretical cosmologic physicist in his early books and articles to apparently accepting deism as scientific evidence unfolds. - And that is what has happened to me. What I cannot escape is that DNA/RNA is a meticulously organized code. It carries enormous amounts of information. Does George really think that chance could have done that encoding. What is 'unfolding' is that junk DNA is really in large part organizational RNA that turns human DNA that was estimated to have 100,000 genes into 25,000 actual genes. This RNA carries contruction plans as well as maintaining energy and replacement functions. As science shows how complex life is, chance becomes less and less likely. 'Chance' as a faith requires looking at the mathematical probabilities. At some point chance disappears into infinity. This I believe is my major disagreement with George.

How to decide is there a deity

by dhw, Thursday, January 08, 2009, 09:43 (5776 days ago) @ George Jelliss

George joined the group because he got the impression that it was a "creationist site", and his intention was to counter creationist claims. - Let me say straight away that I'm delighted you joined, and even more delighted that you stayed. There were several scathing reviews on atheist sites when this one opened, all giving the same impression. The reason, I suppose, was that the Brief Guide began with an attack on Dawkins, and the fundamentalists seem unable to grasp that an attack on one set of beliefs does not automatically mean that you espouse the opposite set. It was therefore a genuine boost when you joined in, pointing me in the direction of a number of very interesting sites, and putting the atheist case generally without the emotional ranting that mars fundamentalism of all shades. You have gone on doing so, often with good humour, and this has always made for stimulating discussion, which is the whole purpose of the forum. - Nevertheless, you continue to misunderstand the nature of my scepticism as well as (let me goad you) the nature of your own faith. I do not have "an aversion to chance", and that is a blanket dismissal which helps to cover up what I see as a degree of irrationality on your part. Life is massively influenced by chance, and that helps to make it all the more exciting. Almost every turning point in my own life has come about through chance, and indeed the very combination of genes that make me what I am is a matter of luck. But that is a long way from believing in the ability of chance to create a working, self-replicating, infinitely adaptable machine. (David argues the case far more competently than I can.) You don't even need the complications of the Boeing 747 or the monkey at the typewriter. If you found a wine glass in the desert, would you/could you believe it had spontaneously created itself out of wind, sand and sun? That is the area of my scepticism about chance, but it is a non-belief and nothing more. Agnostics neither believe nor disbelieve in chance, and we neither believe nor disbelieve in a designer. And we do not tell believers that they are wrong. You dismiss the arguments against chance as "pseudoscience", but you know as well as I do that every experiment to produce spontaneous generation (a neat paradox) has failed ... and those experiments have been carried out by brilliantly intelligent, scientific minds. I have no problem when you say: "I find chance perfectly adequate." I only have a problem if you deny that this = faith, or if you argue that your faith is based on science. - The origin of life is one area on which I remain open-minded. Here is a second. You say: "There is such a thing as having a mind that is too open, to the influence of charlatans and anecdotalists and dreamers and propagandists and the simply deluded." You are right. But if you are saying there is no such thing as OBEs, NDEs, ESP, psychic phenomena ... in other words, if you dismiss every single experience, throughout thousands of years of human history, as coming under one of those five categories ... then I would point out to you that there is also such a thing as having a mind that is too closed. In fact, I would say that it takes a great deal of faith to close one's mind that tightly.

How to decide is there a deity

by George Jelliss ⌂ @, Crewe, Thursday, January 08, 2009, 15:41 (5775 days ago) @ dhw

DHW says he does not have an aversion to chance. He says, and I agree with him, that "Life is massively influenced by chance, and that helps to make it all the more exciting. Almost every turning point in my own life has come about through chance, and indeed the very combination of genes that make me what I am is a matter of luck." Although I would add "or misfortune". - But he then says: "But that is a long way from believing in the ability of chance to create a working, self-replicating, infinitely adaptable machine." But no-one claims that chance ALONE can do this! Only that chance, which DHW admits he believes in, is a factor. - I did a search through the version 2.1 of the downloaded text for the word "chance" and it occurs throughout the document, but it is usually used in the sense of "a miracle of improbability", or else as part of a claim that chance is what atheists "have faith in". - I do not "have faith in" chance. I just believe, exactly as DHW does, that chance is an important element in the way the world works. Chance alone cannot bring about the instantaneous miracles of improbability that DHW imagines brought about life, and consciousness. - He leaves out the role of LAW. Even chance is governed by laws - those of statistics. Chance works within the framework of the laws of physics and chemistry, and brings about what may look like major miracles only slowly over great lengths of time. - Finally, to contradict DHW's last paragraph, I am not "saying there is no such thing as OBEs, NDEs, ESP, psychic phenomena" as perceived by those who claim to have experienced them. I only say that they all have simple explanations in terms of psychological knowledge that we already possess. The evidence is not sufficient to justify the speculations that are often based on them.

How to decide is there a deity

by David Turell @, Thursday, January 08, 2009, 17:50 (5775 days ago) @ George Jelliss

He leaves out the role of LAW. Even chance is governed by laws - those of statistics. Chance works within the framework of the laws of physics and chemistry, and brings about what may look like major miracles only slowly over great lengths of time. 
> 
> Finally, to contradict DHW's last paragraph, I am not "saying there is no such thing as OBEs, NDEs, ESP, psychic phenomena" as perceived by those who claim to have experienced them. I only say that they all have simple explanations in terms of psychological knowledge that we already possess. The evidence is not sufficient to justify the speculations that are often based on them. - I would like to contradict both paragraphs. Chance can work miracles slowly over time, if the time is long enough. If the rate of beneficial mutations and other beneficial DNA changes are known, statistics can tell us if there is enough time for chance to work. Life has been around 3.6 billion years + ?; the earth is 4.5 billion + years old. Are those periods of time long enough for chance to produce life (.7 billion years) and is that long enough for chance alone to have produced us after life started? Current math estimates say no. - The final paragraph I have already addressed several times. In NDE's patients, who could not have found out the information beforehand, come back from an NDE and tell of a recent death of a person they know, and describe the information to a nurse or doctor at the bedside (primarily in hospice care). I have personally heard one hospice doctor incredulously describe this on a radio program in Houston. The literature is filled with them. George may choose not to believe professional caregivers. This is third party corroboration. I agree that a mind may be too open to silliness, but it also can be too firm in previous convictions that are now being overturned.

How to decide is there a deity

by Mark @, Friday, January 09, 2009, 08:12 (5775 days ago) @ David Turell

I would be interested in the thoughts of you all on this.

How to decide is there a deity

by George Jelliss ⌂ @, Crewe, Friday, January 09, 2009, 08:50 (5775 days ago) @ Mark

I doubt of the ASA will be able to rule that "God Probably Exists"! The question is a bit beyond their remit. - If the universe, and universes in general, appeared from a state of nothing (as Stenger and other physicists suggest) then it is unlikely that the constants of physics could vary much, since they all start from the same initial conditions. The symmetry breaking process results in a balance being maintained between the different factors (e.g. matter and antimatter, gravity and antigravity), which must limit the values the constants can take. - The anthropic principle is that life exists therefore the constants must be such as to allow life to evolve. But in fact the universe is very hostile to life. It certainly has not been designed for life to proliferate everywhere.

--
GPJ

How to decide is there a deity

by George Jelliss ⌂ @, Crewe, Saturday, January 10, 2009, 11:03 (5774 days ago) @ George Jelliss

The atheist bus issue has been taken up by the other newspapers as well as the Times: - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/religion/4177717/Atheist-bus-adverts-could-l... - http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/andrewbrown/2009/jan/08/religion-atheism-longle... - Here is a discussion of the anthropic principle on Talk Origins: - http://www.toarchive.org/indexcc/CI/CI301.html

--
GPJ

How to decide is there a deity

by George Jelliss ⌂ @, Crewe, Friday, January 09, 2009, 08:28 (5775 days ago) @ David Turell

DT writes: "Chance can work miracles slowly over time, if the time is long enough. If the rate of beneficial mutations and other beneficial DNA changes are known, statistics can tell us if there is enough time for chance to work. Life has been around 3.6 billion years + ?; the earth is 4.5 billion + years old. Are those periods of time long enough for chance to produce life (.7 billion years) and is that long enough for chance alone to have produced us after life started? Current math estimates say no." - This is my point. No-one is claiming that such changes can occur by CHANCE ALONE. This is a straw man. Chance works within the constraints of Law. - Take a simple example, often given, of a pencil stood on end. A slight chance effect will push it off the vertical and it will then fall under the law of gravity. This is an example of "symmetry breaking", which in current physics is used to explain the separation of the three forces of electromagnetism and the weak and strong nuclear forces, which originally were all one. - In the case of the evolution of life the law within which chance works is the law of natural selection. - In the case of the origin of life the laws within which chance works are those of chemical combinations and reactions, though of course the details of how this happened have yet to be worked out in detail. Because there are gaps doesn't justify inserting "some divine interference occurred here" to explain them.

--
GPJ

How to decide is there a deity

by David Turell @, Friday, January 09, 2009, 14:26 (5774 days ago) @ George Jelliss

Chance works within the constraints of Law. 
> 
> 
> In the case of the evolution of life the law within which chance works is the law of natural selection. - No argument with the first statement. And really none with the second. The problem in my mind is I view chance mutation and natural selection (CM-NS)as a passive process. Natural selection can act ONLY when presented with a variety (two or more) of organisms which can be in competition under the constraints of natural phenomena. Then the better one or ones emerge as survivors. Chance is passive, natural selection is active over periods of time as a species dies out. What I have described is like pushing a rope forward from its back end. Beneficial CM appears at slow rates in species and NS acts slowly. The entire process is slow. That is why I asked, has there been enough time. NS cannot suck chance forward, as some of the Darwin Just-So stories imply. - This is why the new dicoveries that DNA/RNA has other mechanisms to drive adaptation are so important. But they still do not explain the de novo appearance of the Cambrian explosion. Darwin's theory at this point only explains microadaptation, species variation, not new species introduction.

How to decide is there a deity

by dhw, Friday, January 09, 2009, 10:37 (5775 days ago) @ George Jelliss

George writes: "Chance alone cannot bring about the instantaneous miracles of improbability that DHW imagines brought about life, and consciousness. He leaves out the role of LAW. Even chance is governed by laws ... those of statistics." - As so often happens in the course of a reasoned discussion, a great deal of common ground emerges that doesn't necessarily bridge the gap completely, but at least brings the parties closer together. (What a tragedy that the Israelis and Hamas still haven't learned that lesson.) I have no problem with the argument that chance alone is not responsible for, say, evolution. On the contrary, there is a wonderful logic about the whole process. But for me above all it is the mechanism that allowed for evolution to take place that presents the unfathomable mystery. In your response to David, you write: "In the case of the origin of life the laws within which chance works are those of chemical combinations and reactions, though of course the details of how this happened have yet to be worked out in detail." That is the nub of the argument. You have faith that eventually our intelligent scientists will be able to prove that intelligence is not needed to create the necessary combinations. I am not arguing for "some divine interference", but I find the odds against this particular chance so stupendously high that I cannot take your leap of faith. That is why my judgement remains suspended. - As regards psychic experiences, you write that "they all have simple explanations in terms of psychological knowledge that we already possess." I have just posted a response to John Clinch, and would greatly welcome your simple explanations for the instances I have listed. You also say: "The evidence is not sufficient to justify the speculations that are often based on them." I have to agree, though we would need to be more precise about which speculations we regard as being unjustified.

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