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<title>AgnosticWeb.com - How reliable is science? radioactive dating</title>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/</link>
<description>An Agnostic&#039;s Brief Guide to the Universe</description>
<language>en</language>
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<title>How reliable is science? radioactive dating (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Amazing ranges with different isotopes:</p>
<p><a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/earth-sciences/what-is-radiometric-dating/?utm_source=Cosmos+-+Master+Mailing+List&amp;utm_campaign=498ab9085c-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_3f5c04479a-498ab9085c-180344213&amp;mc_cid=498ab9085c&amp;mc_eid=b072569e0b">https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/earth-sciences/what-is-radiometric-dating/?utm_source=...</a></p>
<p>&quot;Radiometric dating is a method of establishing how old something is – perhaps a wooden artefact, a rock, or a fossil – based on the presence of a radioactive isotope within it.</p>
<p>&quot;The basic logic behind radiometric dating is that if you compare the presence of a radioactive isotope within a sample to its known abundance on Earth, and its known half-life (its rate of decay), you can calculate the age of the sample.</p>
<p>***</p>
<p>&quot;Radiocarbon dating is not suitable for dating anything older than around 50,000 years, because 14C decays quickly (its half-life is 5,730 years) and so will not be present in significant enough amounts in older objects to be measurable.</p>
<p>&quot;Potassium-argon dating is a method that allows us to calculate the age of a rock, or how long ago it was formed, by measuring the ratio of radioactive argon to radioactive potassium within it.</p>
<p>***</p>
<p>&quot;Potassium-argon dating is a method that allows us to calculate the age of a rock, or how long ago it was formed, by measuring the ratio of radioactive argon to radioactive potassium within it.</p>
<p>&quot;Argon-argon dating is an updated method, based on the original K-Ar dating technique, that uses neutron irradiation from a nuclear reactor to convert a stable form of potassium into the argon isotope 39Ar, and then measures the ratio of 40Ar to 39Ar.</p>
<p>&quot;Argon-argon dating was used to determine that the Australopithecus Lucy, who rewrote our understanding of early hominin evolution, lived around 3.18 million years ago.</p>
<p>&quot;Uranium-lead dating<br />
This technique involves measuring the ratio of uranium isotopes (238U or 235U) to stable lead isotopes 206Pb, 207Pb and 208Pb. It can be used to determine ages from 4.5 billion years old to 1 million years old. This method is thought to be particularly accurate, with an error-margin that can be less than two million years – not bad in a time span of billions.</p>
<p>&quot;U-Pb dating can be used to date very old rocks, and has its own in-built cross-checking system, since the ratio of 235U to 207Pb and 238U to 206Pb can be compared using a “concordia diagram”, in which samples are plotted along a straight line that intersects the curve at the age of the sample.</p>
<p>***</p>
<p>&quot;Fission-track dating<br />
This method involves examining the polished surface of a slice of rock, and calculating the density of markings – or “tracks” – left in it by the spontaneous fission of 238U impurities.</p>
<p>&quot;The uranium content of the sample must be known</p>
<p>&quot;Fission-track dating identified that the Brahin Pallasite, a meteorite found in the 19th century in Belarus – slabs of which have become a collectors item – underwent its last intensive thermal event 4.26–4.2 billion years ago.</p>
<p>&quot;Chlorine-36 dating<br />
This method involves calculating the prevalence of the very rare isotope chlorine-36 (36Cl), which can be produced in the atmosphere through cosmic rays bombarding argon atoms. It’s used to date very old groundwater, from between around 100,000 and 1 million years old.</p>
<p>***</p>
<p>&quot;Luminescence dating methods are not technically radiometric, since they don’t involve calculating ratios of radioactive isotopes. However, they do use radioactive material.</p>
<p>&quot;This method can date archaeological materials, such as ceramics, and minerals, like lava flows and limestones. It has a normal range of a few decades to 100,000 years old, but some studies have used it to identify much older things.&quot;</p>
<p>Comment: Our big brains are plenty smart.</p>
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<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=38193</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=38193</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 14 Apr 2021 00:14:52 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? Political views influence it (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A scientist confesses he doesn't trust his political views an his results:</p>
<p><a href="https://aeon.co/essays/how-much-does-evolution-depend-on-chance?utm_source=Aeon+Newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=c84caf8f75-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_31&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_411a82e59d-c84caf8f75-68942561">https://aeon.co/essays/how-much-does-evolution-depend-on-chance?utm_source=Aeon+Newslet...</a></p>
<p> &quot;Here I was, a left-wing scientist, with a scientific narrative that mirrored my political views. Had I, somehow, skewed my interpretation of pipit variation to fit my prejudices? Worse, had I subconsciously skewed the results? I checked and double-checked, and found the same thing. I tried finding new ways of looking at my data, but still I came to the same conclusion. The founder effects looked real. If I had done something wrong, I couldn’t figure out what it was.</p>
<p>&quot;Political beliefs affect science at many levels, from decisions on what research is funded, to the subconscious biases of individual scientists. And for my part, I am sure that my political views have influenced my scientific research, and all along I haven’t had a clue. We constantly make subjective decisions as scientists: which questions get us fired up, which do we ignore, when do we consider a result significant enough to publish, how do we approach an analysis, and how do we interpret our findings. We strive for objectivity, but we can never truly achieve it. Instead we can but hope that the self-correcting process of science weeds out the rubbish, and that truth emerges over time.</p>
<p>&quot;So maybe radical scientists are not such a bad thing after all. Perhaps the likes of Gould and Lewontin, who are able to take a step back and look critically at their whole field, play an essential role in keeping science in check, and therefore in moving it forward. They might have overstepped the mark at times, but their critique of adaptationism was one that needed to be made, and is one that has improved the scientific rigour of evolutionary biology overall. Biologists are now much more careful of inventing adaptive explanations for everything they see, and are more amenable to non-adaptive explanations.&quot;</p>
<p>Comment: Global warming is primarily a political left/right issue. The overall climate cooled in the mid 20th century. Then it warmed and then it plateaued until the last strong el Nino. Now it is plateaued  again.</p>
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<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=25329</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=25329</guid>
<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jun 2017 14:29:01 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? Publisher pulls papers (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At least the reliable house are alert:</p>
<p><br />
<a href="http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/47408/title/Publisher-Retracts-Dozens-of-Studies/&amp;utm_campaign=NEWSLETTER_TS_The-Scientist-Daily_2016&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=36887953&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9_WfzaZmleThMZYfMgtFZtkuVIqn_oAB2uMeJPseMpfe60r_pn8R_JFC7zK0bSPBGJM22qgxUhsZGxWGbJapUqvau6mA&amp;_hsmi=36887953">http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/47408/title/Publisher-Retracts-Do...</a></p>
<p>&quot;Springer and BioMed Central today (November 1) announced the retraction of 58 articles across seven journals, affecting more than 200 authors. Springer Nature, the company behind both subsidiary publishers, issued the mass retraction notice upon discovering that some of the now-pulled papers’ authors had manipulated the peer review process, and that some of the reports contained plagiarism.</p>
<p>“'We take every allegation seriously, and investigate every allegation of plagiarism,” a Springer Nature spokesperson told Retraction Watch. “In this case we identified irregularities which led us to suspect a broader pattern of manipulation.”</p>
<p>&quot;While most retractions are quiet, single-study affairs, in recent years publishers have issued an increasing number of mass retractions. In 2014, for instance, Springer and IEEE pulled more than 120 papers that had been produced by SciGen, a random study generator.</p>
<p>&quot;But the most recent cases of misconduct reported by Springer Nature were more difficult to detect. “A much more complex manipulation has taken place from a different group of authors,” the publisher’s spokesperson told Retraction Watch. “It involves complex manipulation of our submission and peer reviews systems.”</p>
<p>&quot;Tumor Biology and Diagnostic Pathology pulled 25 and 23 manipulated papers, respectively. Many of the studies in question cited coauthors Aram Mokarizadeh of the University of Tehran and Emad Yahaghi of the Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, also in Iran, who are both named on the paper that launched Springer’s initial investigation, Retraction Watch reported. Seventy percent of the Springer retractions and 93 percent of the BioMed Central retractions showed evidence of plagiarism, the publisher noted—the rest showed evidence of authorship or peer review manipulation.</p>
<p>&quot;Retraction Watch has published a list of the retracted papers. According to Springer Nature, individual notices will be posted throughout the week, explaining why each of the 58 papers was pulled.&quot;</p>
<p>Comment: Whew!</p>
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<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=23368</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=23368</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 02 Nov 2016 13:39:05 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? Peer review doesn't help (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This review article covers the problem of science in global warming. Peer review proves nothing. Only replication of results does.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2016/10/PeerReview.pdf">http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2016/10/PeerReview.pdf</a></p>
<p>&quot;Prior to the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit, Peter Doherty, winner of the Nobel Prize in medicine, defended the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) from its critics. The IPCC involves hundreds of scientists and ‘draws its evidence exclusively from peer-reviewed, published scientiﬁc literature’, he wrote. Around the same time, the IPCC chairman was asked if an Indian environment ministry report might alter the IPCC’s pessimistic view of Himalayan glaciers. The ‘IPCC studies only peer-review science’, Rajendra Pachauri replied dismissively. Until the report’s data appears in ‘a decent credible publication’, he said, ‘we can just throw it into the dustbin’.2 Peer-reviewed research is reliable, so the reasoning goes. Non-peer-reviewed research is not. The IPCC makes exclusive use of the former, therefore its conclusions can be trusted. This argument has long been used to deﬂect criticism and to repel contrary climate perspectives. But behind it lies a dubious assumption: that academic publications are a sound foundation on which to base real-world decisions. In fact, science is currently in the grip of a ’reproducibility crisis’ so severe that the editor of a prominent journal has declared that ‘much of the scientiﬁc literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue’. Media coverage declaring that’ science is broken’ has become commonplace.</p>
<p> &quot;Part 1 of this report demonstrates that a journal’s decision to publish a paper provides no assurance that its conclusions are sound. Large swathes of peer-reviewed work contain errors. Fraudulent research makes it past gatekeepers at even the most prestigious journals. And while science is supposed to be self-correcting, the process by which this occurs is haphazard and byzantine. A policy cannot be considered evidence-based if the evidence on which it depends was never independently veriﬁed. Peer review does not perform that function.<br />
 <br />
&quot;News from the worlds of astrobiology, ecology, economics, chemistry, computer science, management studies, medicine, neuroscience, psychology,and physics all tell the same tale: ’peer-reviewed’ does not equal ’policy-ready.’ Part 2 of this report invites us to re-examine what we think we know about the climate. While good scientists have always understood that peer review doesn’t certify accuracy, IPCC ofﬁcials–supported by politicians, activists, and journalists–think global climate decision-making should rest on this shaky foundation. If half of all peer-reviewed research ‘may simply be untrue’, half of all climate research may also be untrue. The policy implications of this idea are immense.&quot;</p>
<p>Comment: This large report gives many examples. One should be aware that 'under the table arrangements' result in friendly uncritical reviews. There are many examples in many of my previous postings.</p>
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<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=23349</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=23349</guid>
<pubDate>Mon, 31 Oct 2016 14:59:06 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? Publish or perish (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>tis article takes the pint of view that over-publishing is a real problem, and produces junk, which is recognized but isn&amp;apos;t stopped so far:-http://www.nature.com/news/the-pressure-to-publish-pushes-down-quality-1.19887?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20160512&amp;spMailingID=51353744&amp;spUserID=MjA1NjE2NDU5MwS2&amp;spJobID=921389953&amp;spReportId=OTIxMzg5OTUzS0-But what if more is bad? In 1963, the physicist and historian of science Derek de Solla Price looked at growth trends in the research enterprise and saw the threat of&amp;#147;scientific doomsday&amp;#148;. The number of scientists and publications had been growing exponentially for 250 years, and Price realized that the trend was unsustainable. Within a couple of generations, he said, it would lead to a world in which &amp;#147;we should have two scientists for every man, woman, child, and dog in the population&amp;#148;. -***-The quality problem has reared its head in ways that Price could not have anticipated. Mainstream scientific leaders increasingly accept that large bodies of published research are unreliable. But what seems to have escaped general notice is a destructive feedback between the production of poor-quality science, the responsibility to cite previous work and the compulsion to publish.-The quality problem has been widely recognized in cancer science, in which many cell lines used for research turn out to be contaminated. For example, a breast-cancer cell line used in more than 1,000 published studies actually turned out to have been a melanoma cell line. The average biomedical research paper gets cited between 10 and 20 times in 5 years, and as many as one-third of all cell lines used in research are thought to be contaminated, so the arithmetic is easy enough to do: by one estimate, 10,000 published papers a year cite work based on contaminated cancer cell lines. Metastasis has spread to the cancer literature.-Similar negative feedbacks occur in other areas of research. Pervasive quality problems have been exposed for rodent studies of neurological diseases, biomarkers for cancer and other diseases, and experimental psychology, amid the publication of thousands of papers.-So yes, the web makes it much more efficient to identify relevant published studies, but it also makes it that much easier to troll for supporting papers, whether or not they are any good. No wonder citation rates are going up.-***-That problem is likely to be worse in policy-relevant fields such as nutrition, education, epidemiology and economics, in which the science is often uncertain and the societal stakes can be high. The never-ending debates about the health effects of dietary salt, or how to structure foreign aid, or measure ecosystem services, are typical of areas in which copious peer-reviewed support can be found for whatever position one wants to take &amp;#151; a condition that then justifies calls for still more research.-More than 50 years ago, Price predicted that the scientific enterprise would soon have to go through a transition from exponential growth to &amp;#147;something radically different&amp;#148;, unknown and potentially threatening. Today, the interrelated problems of scientific quantity and quality are a frightening manifestation of what he foresaw. It seems extraordinarily unlikely that these problems will be resolved through the home remedies of better statistics and lab practice, as important as they may be. Rather, they would seem &amp;#151; and this is what Price believed &amp;#151; to announce that the enterprise of science is evolving towards something different and as yet only dimly seen.-Current trajectories threaten science with drowning in the noise of its own rising productivity, a future that Price described as &amp;#147;senility&amp;#148;. Avoiding this destiny will, in part, require much more selective publication. Rising quality can thus emerge from declining scientific efficiency and productivity. We can start by publishing less, and less often, whatever the promotional e-mails promise us.-Comment: So the problem is more than just poor peer review. Remember governments supply the money, scientists need income and chasing money breeds all sorts of deviant behavior. And our debate is based on science findings.</p>
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<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=21904</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=21904</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 11 May 2016 17:42:13 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? Zombie papers (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Apparently there are fraudulent research papers, but there are also papers with &amp;apos;honest&amp;apos; mistakes, unnoticed errors that persist until there is a review of the methods. Peer reviewers can easily miss them and the papers with their errors stay in the literature and many are cited over and over. What to do is a current problem:-http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/45868/title/The-Zombie-Literature/&amp;utm_campaign=NEWSLETTER_TS_The-Scientist-Daily_2016&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=29139068&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-95VtFmITjbpVp6az3PTsMq53bwpVy3UaEZuHWmg_1DXrSX63bTJupIMVmHqFSN4PekOmgNcT1ot3SneqOnyD7u661ZfA&amp;_hsmi=29139068/-&amp;quot;But while cases of misconduct and subsequent retractions headline a growing reproducibility problem in the sciences, they actually represent a relatively small number of the flawed studies out there. The vast majority of publications that reported inaccurate results, used impure cell cultures, relied on faulty antibodies, or analyzed contaminated DNA are not the result of wrongdoing, but of honest mistakes, and many such papers persist in the scientific literature uncorrected.-***-&amp;quot;Are these &amp;#147;zombie papers&amp;#148; (to repurpose a term coined by academic publishing watchdog Leonid Schneider) benign&amp;#151;relics of antiquated methodologies or poor reagents that serve as a historical record for the field of inquiry? Or are they worrisome enough to be hunted down and excised from the body of the scientific literature altogether, in the same way that intentionally falsified reports are?-&amp;quot;Many researchers argue for the latter. Flawed papers, especially those that become highly cited, run the danger of perpetuating faulty methods or conclusions, sending funding and effort in fruitless directions, and building layers of theory upon shaky conceptual foundations. In this way, zombie papers can spawn more zombie publications, and the damage can be amplified and spread in an infectious pattern.-&amp;#147;&amp;apos;It is a big problem, and it is a pervasive problem,&amp;#148; says Brian Nosek, a University of Virginia psychologist and cofounder/executive director of the Center for Open Science. Just how big remains unclear, but Gelman estimates that flawed publications may outnumber the good ones.-&amp;#13;&amp;#10;***-&amp;quot;And the zombie horde will only continue to grow as ever more journals churn out reams of scientific papers at an increasing rate. Nosek and Gelman are critical of traditional scientific publishing, which has remained essentially unchanged for centuries. They and others say it&amp;apos;s time to modernize the process. Over the past couple of years, researchers have begun to implement new mechanisms and avenues to review, flag, correct, and annotate the scientific literature. In the future, some hope, the way that researchers and publishers interact with each other and the body of work they generate could be radically transformed.-&amp;#147;&amp;apos;There is certainly evolution in how people are thinking about these issues,&amp;#148; Nosek says, &amp;#147;and what role publishers then would play if there was more responsivity to evidence as it accumulates rather than just the static record of what was thought at that particular time.&amp;#148;-***-&amp;quot;Allison says, the scientific community would need to overhaul its whole concept of who actually owns data and research findings. &amp;#147;You&amp;apos;re in charge of it for a while, but it&amp;apos;s really the public&amp;apos;s data,&amp;#148; he says. &amp;#147;And this [change] won&amp;apos;t happen overnight.&amp;#148;-&amp;quot;So while zombie papers, such as P&amp;#228;&amp;#228;bo&amp;apos;s mummy DNA study, the arsenic-life paper, and many others too numerous to mention here, will likely live on in the scientific literature, there is a glimmer of hope that, as science adopts a more modern model for publishing and revising results, making papers more dynamic and less static, we may see a downtick in recruitment to the zombie hordes.&amp;quot;-Comment: At least the problem is recognized and solutions are sought, just as peer review is being strongly questioned.</p>
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<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=21814</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=21814</guid>
<pubDate>Mon, 02 May 2016 13:25:02 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? Data hidden (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How can one really judge a paper&amp;apos;s conclusion if not all of the data and methodology are revealed?-http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/44939/title/Study--Transparency-Lacking-in-Biomedical-Literature/-&amp;quot;Despite a push for transparency in science, full data disclosure may be close to non-existent among published studies. Of 441 randomly selected biomedical research papers analyzed in a new study, none provided access to all the authors&amp;apos; data. And only one of these papers shared a complete protocol. The results of this analysis, which could shed light on science&amp;apos;s reproducibility problem, were published today (January 4) in PLOS Biology.-&amp;#147;&amp;apos;What was most surprising to me was the complete lack of data-sharing and protocol availability,&amp;#148; said study coauthor John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine and health research and policy at the Stanford University School of Medicine. &amp;#147;That was worse than I would have predicted.&amp;#148;-&amp;#147;&amp;apos;This study confirms what most of us already know&amp;#151;that the current clinical research enterprise is set up in a way that researchers consider data their own assets,&amp;#148; said cardiologist Harlan Krumholz, leader of the Yale University Open Data Access Project, who was not involved in the work. &amp;#147;There is little investment, effort, or tools to support data-sharing broadly,&amp;#148; he said. &amp;#147;The advantage of this study is that it brings this issue into public view.&amp;apos;&amp;#148;-Comment: Not necessary. Speaks for itself.</p>
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<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=20795</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=20795</guid>
<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jan 2016 15:03:09 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? Perhaps not very (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When studies are carefully monitored positive results tend to vanish:-http://www.nature.com/news/registered-clinical-trials-make-positive-findings-vanish-1.18181-&amp;quot;The launch of the clinicaltrials.gov registry in 2000 seems to have had a striking impact on reported trial results, according to a PLoS ONE study1 that many researchers have been talking about online in the past week.-&amp;quot;A 1997 US law mandated the registry&amp;apos;s creation, requiring researchers from 2000 to record their trial methods and outcome measures before collecting data. The study found that in a sample of 55 large trials testing heart-disease treatments, 57% of those published before 2000 reported positive effects from the treatments. But that figure plunged to just 8% in studies that were conducted after 2000. Study author Veronica Irvin, a health scientist at Oregon State University in Corvallis, says this suggests that registering clinical studies is leading to more rigorous research. Writing on his NeuroLogica Blog, neurologist Steven Novella of Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut, called the study &amp;#147;encouraging&amp;#148; but also &amp;#147;a bit frightening&amp;#148; because it casts doubt on previous positive results.-***-&amp;quot;Many online observers applauded the evident power of registration and transparency, including Novella, who wrote on his blog that all research involving humans should be registered before any data are collected. However, he says, this means that at least half of older, published clinical trials could be false positives. &amp;#147;Loose scientific methods are leading to a massive false positive bias in the literature,&amp;#148; he writes.-***-&amp;quot;Still, of all the factors they studied, Irvin and Kaplan say that registration had strongest effect, even though it cannot erase all bias &amp;#151; even registered clinical studies showing positive results should be viewed with &amp;#147;healthy scepticism&amp;#148;, Irvin says. &amp;#147;Too often, the audience only reads the headline and the abstract.&amp;#148; It is only when you take a close look at the study details &amp;#151; such as effect sizes and response rates &amp;#151; that you can judge whether a result is likely to be clinically meaningful, she says.&amp;quot;</p>
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<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=19536</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=19536</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 19 Aug 2015 03:56:07 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? new carbon dating problems (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Tony:  <a href="http://www.britannica.com/science/stratification-geology&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt;">http://www.britannica.com/science/stratification-geology&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt;</a> &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; <strong><em>No direct relationship exists between the thickness and extent of strata and the rate of deposition or the time represented;</em></strong> for example, a stratum of limestone 2.5 cm (1 inch) thick may take longer to form than a stratum of sandstone 3 m (10 feet) in thickness. The most common cause of stratification is variation in the transporting ability of the depositing agent. Water and wind sort sediments according to size, weight, and shape of particles, and these sediments settle in layers of relative homogeneity. Differences in sediment composition resulting from different sources, and variation in sediment brought about by change in agents of deposition, also lead to stratification.-Good reference. The strata do vary in thickness and compositions depending on their history of development.</p>
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<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=19272</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=19272</guid>
<pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2015 15:32:57 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? new carbon dating problems (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Tony: One probing question that no one bothers to ask:&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; How did this animal/plant/organism get burried rapidly enough for it to be fossilized?-I&amp;apos;m not sure the fossilization process is fully understood. However the fossils exist and tell a story that looks like an evolutionary process.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; Tony: Let me make something more clear for both you and DHW. I am not a young earth creationist. I don&amp;apos;t particularly care if God created the Earth six thousand or four billion years ago. Which ever way he did it, I am sure he had good reason and I would love to understand what that reason is.-I didn&amp;apos;t think you were a YEC. You are attempting to fit everything into the Bible. Well, I&amp;apos;ll stick to four billion, but like you I&amp;apos;m sure God did it for His own reasons, just as I think He set up an evolutionary process for life under His guidance. -&gt; Tony: What bothers me is that scientist ignore their own rules, logic, and discoveries in order to avoid painful, uncomfortable, or embarassing truths. &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; When we look at the events that can move a volume of earth sufficiently large enough to bury trees and dinosaurs and the like, there aren&amp;apos;t many.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; A) Floods&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; B) Mudslides&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; C) Cave ins&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; D) Third party burials.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; That&amp;apos;s pretty much it. Nothing else moves enough earth rapidly enough to completely bury an organism without first destorying it. -Like I said, fossilization is not completely understood, but fossils exist to tell a story. We&amp;apos;ve all seen them. On the Grand Canyon at Deer Falls, 200 feet above the river, there is a large rock, estimated at 200 million years old with obvious fossilized worm borings.-If God controlled all of creation He arranged for fossils in all forms and deposits as they are found by fossil hunters.- Our difference is one of perspective: I&amp;apos;ll accept the scientific aging approaches. I know God did it. Like dhw I recognize the Bible is based on human authors and human thought. I don&amp;apos;t think humans can read the mind of God.</p>
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<pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2015 15:30:12 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? new carbon dating problems (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.britannica.com/science/stratification-geology-">http://www.britannica.com/science/stratification-geology-</a><strong><em>No direct relationship exists between the thickness and extent of strata and the rate of deposition or the time represented;</em></strong> for example, a stratum of limestone 2.5 cm (1 inch) thick may take longer to form than a stratum of sandstone 3 m (10 feet) in thickness. The most common cause of stratification is variation in the transporting ability of the depositing agent. Water and wind sort sediments according to size, weight, and shape of particles, and these sediments settle in layers of relative homogeneity. Differences in sediment composition resulting from different sources, and variation in sediment brought about by change in agents of deposition, also lead to stratification.</p>
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<pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2015 04:24:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>Balance_Maintained</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? new carbon dating problems (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Tony&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &gt; 1)Is age the ONLY way that layers are formed in the earth?&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &gt; 2)How is that soil being tranferred into these layers? How is it being accumulated?&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &gt; #Are layers uniform enough to be a reliable indicator of age? (like counting tree rings)&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &gt; 4) How do you explain horizontal layers around vertical objects?&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt;David: I&amp;apos;m no expert but  did have a 10 days course on the Grand Canyon by as geology department head professor, who had about 40 papers on the Canyon. The lowest visible layer I saw and touched was the Vishnu Shist, 2.2 billion years old.-I bet that was fun!&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 1) No, there are sudden lava flows, erosion (see below). Continental subduction can disrupt the layers. I&amp;apos;ve seen this on another river.-Subduction disrupts layers, and actually makes them rather unsuitable for calculating ages. I.e. What happens if a 1byo layer is subducted under 2byo? If we went according to radio metric dating, the layers would be younger the deaper you went. Similiarly, erosion removes layers as well as depositing them. Using the analogy of counting rings on a tree, it is like someone removed a couple of outer rings from one tree and wrapped them around another.-&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 2) Erosion by wind, water; earthquakes, ocean silting and volcanic ash eruptions  are some of the things I can think of.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; -Flooding and silting are major ones because of the interesting things that happen when sediments are suspended in a liquid. For solids suspended in a liquid, they are sorted by boyancy/mass not by age, which further muddies the chronological record. Not only that, water in particular is horrible for radiometric dating because as it filters through a strata it both removes and deposits elements into the strata, making any assumption about the initial ratios a blind man&amp;apos;s guess.-&gt; 3) The layers are uniform enough to use as aging once ages are established at different levels. The Great Unconformity (750 million years not in the canyon) are elsewhere on the Earth, so the Earth in like an onion. The loss of the GU is thought to be due to erosion.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 4) The layers I&amp;apos;ve seen are much thicker than the height of a tree, and some layers have sub-layers. Certainly a tree could be fossilized in upright state. I looked at the website you referred to, and I know there are refuting articles, but I&amp;apos;m not educated enough to fully comment. -The layers may be thick enough, but like much of long time-line evolutionary theory (and yes, this portion of geology has deep ties with evolutionary theory), the problem is not the observation, but how the observation is incongruent with other observations. -Strata and Time: Probing the Gaps in Our Understanding&amp;#13;&amp;#10;edited by D.G. Smith, R.J. Bailey, P.M. Burgess, A.J. Fraser pg.23-The problem is that it might take a couple of million years worth of sediment to bury a 12m tree, but the decay rate on said tree is likely no more than a few decades at maximum. Since fossilization requires rapid burial to prevent decomposition, unless there was some form of cataclysm that rapidly buried the tree, the tree would have decomposed long before it could ever have been fossilized. -This is also true of virtually ever fossil ever found. One probing question that no one bothers to ask:-How did this animal/plant/organism get burried rapidly enough for it to be fossilized?-&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; David:I think it is hard to suggest the Earth in not 4.5 billion years old. And there is good evidence of biologic activity at 3.5 billion years and before with fossils in many layers all the way down.-&amp;#13;&amp;#10;I am not suggesting any age for the Earth at all. As I said before, the age of the Earth is actually irrelevant to me. Whether it is 6000 or 4byo, it matters not. -Let me make something more clear for both you and DHW. I am not a young earth creationist. I don&amp;apos;t particularly care if God created the Earth six thousand or four billion years ago. Which ever way he did it, I am sure he had good reason and I would love to understand what that reason is. What bothers me is that scientist ignore their own rules, logic, and discoveries in order to avoid painful, uncomfortable, or embarassing truths. -Organisms must be burried prior to decaying in order to be preserved. The fact that you have hundreds, or even thousands of fossils all in the same area, at the same geological strata indicates that they all died at the same time, and were buried in the same event. If they were not, then there is almost no chance at all that they would have ever became fossils. -When we look at the events that can move a volume of earth sufficiently large enough to bury trees and dinosaurs and the like, there aren&amp;apos;t many.-A) Floods&amp;#13;&amp;#10;B) Mudslides&amp;#13;&amp;#10;C) Cave ins&amp;#13;&amp;#10;D) Third party burials.-That&amp;apos;s pretty much it. Nothing else moves enough earth rapidly enough to completely bury an organism without first destorying it. (Lava flows might bury an organism, but the chances are very high that the organism would be completely incenerated instead of being fossilized.)</p>
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<pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2015 04:19:10 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>Balance_Maintained</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? new carbon dating problems (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; Tony: No one ever claimed that the earth does not add layers as it ages, but there are limitations to that. That being said, here are some counter questions:&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 1)Is age the ONLY way that layers are formed in the earth?&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 2)How is that soil being tranferred into these layers? How is it being accumulated?&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; #Are layers uniform enough to be a reliable indicator of age? (like counting tree rings)&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 4) How do you explain horizontal layers around vertical objects?-I&amp;apos;m no expert but  did have a 10 days course on the Grand Canyon by as geology department head professor, who had about 40 papers on the Canyon. The lowest visible layer I saw and touched was the Vishnu Shist, 2.2 billion years old.-1) No, there are sudden lava flows, erosion (see below). Continental subduction can disrupt the layers. I&amp;apos;ve seen this on another river.-2) Erosion by wind, water; earthquakes, ocean silting and volcanic ash eruptions  are some of the things I can think of.-3) The layers are uniform enough to use as aging once ages are established at different levels. The Great Unconformity (750 million years not in the canyon) are elsewhere on the Earth, so the Earth in like an onion. The loss of the GU is thought to be due to erosion.-4) The layers I&amp;apos;ve seen are much thicker than the height of a tree, and some layers have sub-layers. Certainly a tree could be fossilized in upright state. I looked at the website you referred to, and I know there are refuting articles, but I&amp;apos;m not educated enough to fully comment. -I think it is hard to suggest the Earth in not 4.5 billion years old. And there is good evidence of biologic activity at 3.5 billion years and before with fossils in many layers all the way down.</p>
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<pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2015 23:36:06 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? new carbon dating problems (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><blockquote><p>Tony: The things that irritate me are when there is circular logic (i.e. the rock strata is dated based on the organisms it contains and the organisms are dated based on the rock strata), when the visible evidence contrdicts the hypothesis (http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/polystrate/trees.html), or when they start trying use these speculative hypotheses to prop up other speculative hypotheses, like evolution.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt;David: How do you explain The rock strata I&amp;apos;ve seen and touched in the Grand Canyon. Are they all the same age? Or the Great Unconformity in which missing layers are found only elsewhere in the world? Doesn&amp;apos;t the evidence show the Earth adds layers as it ages?-No one ever claimed that the earth does not add layers as it ages, but there are limitations to that. That being said, here are some counter questions:-Is age the ONLY way that layers are formed in the earth?&amp;#13;&amp;#10;How is that soil being tranferred into these layers? How is it being accumulated?&amp;#13;&amp;#10;Are layers uniform enough to be a reliable indicator of age? (like counting tree rings)&amp;#13;&amp;#10;How do you explain horizontal layers around vertical objects?</p>
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<pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2015 21:51:19 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>Balance_Maintained</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? new carbon dating problems (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Tony: The things that irritate me are when there is circular logic (i.e. the rock strata is dated based on the organisms it contains and the organisms are dated based on the rock strata), when the visible evidence contrdicts the hypothesis (http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/polystrate/trees.html), or when they start trying use these speculative hypotheses to prop up other speculative hypotheses, like evolution.-How do you explain The rock strata I&amp;apos;ve seen and touched in the Grand Canyon. Are they all the same age? Or the Great Unconformity in which missing layers are found only elsewhere in the world? Doesn&amp;apos;t the evidence show the Earth adds layers as it ages?</p>
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<pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2015 13:56:56 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? new carbon dating problems (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><blockquote><blockquote><p>&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &gt; &gt;David: Granting that point, how far off do you think the guesses are?&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &gt; Tony: There is literally know way of knowing. To give one simple example, even with sealed, non-porous, non-contaminated rocks(which really don&amp;apos;t exist), the radio-metric dating would only tell you when that rock was formed, not how old the materials that made it are. In the case of igneous rock, that would be when it solidified, and studies on those types if rocks have been off by hundreds of millions of years. In the case of sedimentary rocks, they are all subject to heavy contamination based on their composition and the state of the world at the time that the layers were deposited, and even more so by the fact that until they are exposed to sufficient time and pressure, they are constantly contaminated by water penetration transporting minerals in and out of them.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; I&amp;apos;ve always accepted a range of 10-20% off in the aging estimates, which is quoted. If the universe is 13.78 byo and the sun about 5 byo, the earth 4.5 byo and the Cambrian explosion about 510 myo, does this really matter, from your point of view?--For some things, it does not matter at all. For example, it would not phase me at all if the universe were 13.78byo, the Sun 5 byo, or the Earth 4.5 byo. Even the pre-human epochs of life would not really phase me that much. The things that irritate me are when there is circular logic (i.e. the rock strata is dated based on the organisms it contains and the organisms are dated based on the rock strata), when the visible evidence contrdicts the hypothesis (http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/polystrate/trees.html), or when they start trying use these speculative hypotheses to prop up other speculative hypotheses, like evolution.</p>
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<pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2015 03:12:39 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>Balance_Maintained</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? new carbon dating problems (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><blockquote><p>&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &gt;David: Granting that point, how far off do you think the guesses are?&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; Tony: There is literally know way of knowing. To give one simple example, even with sealed, non-porous, non-contaminated rocks(which really don&amp;apos;t exist), the radio-metric dating would only tell you when that rock was formed, not how old the materials that made it are. In the case of igneous rock, that would be when it solidified, and studies on those types if rocks have been off by hundreds of millions of years. In the case of sedimentary rocks, they are all subject to heavy contamination based on their composition and the state of the world at the time that the layers were deposited, and even more so by the fact that until they are exposed to sufficient time and pressure, they are constantly contaminated by water penetration transporting minerals in and out of them.-I&amp;apos;ve always accepted a range of 10-20% off in the aging estimates, which is quoted. If the universe is 13.78 byo and the sun about 5 byo, the earth 4.5 byo and the Cambrian explosion about 510 myo, does this really matter, from your point of view?</p>
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<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2015 15:11:17 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? new carbon dating problems (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><blockquote><p>&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &gt; Tony: But the same underlying problem exists for all of them. They all labor under the major assumption that we KNOW what the starting ratio of parent:daughter elements were, and we don&amp;apos;t.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt;David: Granting that point, how far off do you think the guesses are?-There is literally know way of knowing. To give one simple example, even with sealed, non-porous, non-contaminated rocks(which really don&amp;apos;t exist), the radio-metric dating would only tell you when that rock was formed, not how old the materials that made it are. In the case of igneous rock, that would be when it solidified, and studies on those types if rocks have been off by hundreds of millions of years. In the case of sedimentary rocks, they are all subject to heavy contamination based on their composition and the state of the world at the time that the layers were deposited, and even more so by the fact that until they are exposed to sufficient time and pressure, they are constantly contaminated by water penetration transporting minerals in and out of them.</p>
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<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2015 08:45:34 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>Balance_Maintained</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? new carbon dating problems (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; Tony: But the same underlying problem exists for all of them. They all labor under the major assumption that we KNOW what the starting ratio of parent:daughter elements were, and we don&amp;apos;t.-Granting that point, how far off do you think the guesses are?</p>
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<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2015 00:37:22 +0000</pubDate>
<category>The limitations of science</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
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<title>How reliable is science? new carbon dating problems (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><blockquote><p>&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &gt; Tony: Gee... I seem to recall that I&amp;apos;ve been bagging on carbon dating for years now because the results are inconsistent and questionable.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; But there are at least five other methods and carbon is only for recent events.-But the same underlying problem exists for all of them. They all labor under the major assumption that we KNOW what the starting ratio of parent:daughter elements were, and we don&amp;apos;t.</p>
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